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Saturday, February 5, 2011

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Crisis

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The Muslim Brotherhood and
the Egyptian Crisis

February 5, 2011
 


Dear, 

A short comment on what is happening in the Middle East -- We witnessed the fall of the Tunisian Government as a result of massive civil unrest and then the Lebanese government as a result of machinations of Hizbollah. Then Egypt where hundreds of thousands have protested, forcing Mubarak to announce that he will initiate a process of government transfer to a successor.

Unfortunately, President Obama's statements have been widely seen in Israel as stabbing Mubarak in the back. And that is how it is being seen throughout the Middle East. Leaders in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Israel are wondering how much an alliance with the US is worth. Obama has sent a strong message around the world that their friends cannot count on the US.

This is exactly what happened in Iran when the Shah fell. While neither Mubarak nor the Shah were ever known for his democratic sensiblities, they were stable pro-Western leaders. It is naive to believe that their replacements, given the most non-democratic nature of Middle East culture, would ever be democratic or liberal. The Shah was replaced by Houmeini who was heralded by liberal Iranian voices as their savior. They learned their mistake far too late and the entire world has paid the price ever since. Will the same thing happen in Egypt? It is too early to say, but the signs are not good. The Islamic Brotherhood is part of the coalition that is backing the opposition group. And the Islamic Brotherhood is the parent group of Hamas. They, together with Hizbollah in the north, are backed by Iran.

We are very worried in Israel. But what worries me the most is that the leader of the most powerful country of the world doesn't seem to have a clue.

Read this article below by Dore Gold to learn more.

Shalom,

Sondra Oster Baras
Director, Israel Office
CFOIC Heartland 


The Muslim Brotherhood and
the Egyptian Crisis

By Dore Gold
·    Will the Obama administration's policy toward Egypt be based on a perception that the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood would be extremely dangerous? Or have they taken the position - voiced in parts of the U.S. foreign policy establishment - that the Brotherhood has become moderate and can be talked to? Initial administration reactions indicate that it does not rule out Muslim Brotherhood participation in a future Egyptian coalition government.
·    Since January 28, the Muslim Brotherhood's involvement has become more prominent, with its support of Mohamed ElBaradei to lead the opposition forces against the government. In the streets of Cairo, Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators disdainfully call people like ElBaradei "donkeys of the revolution" (hamir al-thawra) - to be used and then pushed away - a scenario that sees the Muslim Brotherhood exploit ElBaradei in order to hijack the Egyptian revolution at a later stage.

·    There has been a great deal of confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood.  In the years after it was founded in 1928, it developed a "secret apparatus" that engaged in political terrorism against Egyptian Copts as well as government officials. In December 1948, the Muslim Brotherhood assassinated Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmoud al-Nuqrashi Pasha. It also sought to kill Egyptian leader Abdul Nasser in October 1954.

·    Former Brotherhood Supreme Guide Muhammad Akef declared in 2004 his "complete faith that Islam will invade Europe and America." In 2001, the Muslim Brotherhood's publication in London, Risalat al-Ikhwan, featured at the top of its cover page the slogan: "Our Mission: World Domination." This header was changed after 9/11.

·    The current Supreme Guide, Muhammad Badi', gave a sermon in September 2010 stating that "the improvement and change that the [Muslim] nation seeks can only be attained through jihad and sacrifice and by raising a jihadi generation that pursues death, just as the enemies pursue life."
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'Terror attack on Egypt-Israel gas pipeline in El-Arish'





Egyptian state television reports masked men set off detonation at pipeline in northern Sinai causing massive flames; gas supply to Israel cut off following explosion; Jerusalem monitoring situation.

  A group of masked men set off a detonation at the Israel-Egypt gas pipeline in El-Arish, Egypt in the northern Sinai early on Saturday morning, Egyptian state television reported.
Residents say they heard the sound of an explosion, and that massive flames shot into the air. Egyptian state television referred to the incident as a "terrorist" attack.

If you like to read the whole story click: The Jerusalem Post 

Egypt holds gas supply to Israel and Jordan after pipeline explosion 

Security source in Sinai says 'foreign elements' targeted the pipe that supplies Jordan; Egypt supplies Israel with over 40 percent of its natural gas.

By Avi Issacharoff, Barak Ravid and Reuters
Saboteurs blew up a pipeline that runs through Egypt's Northern Sinai, state television reported on Saturday, disrupting flows to Israel and Jordan after Islamist groups called on militants to exploit the unrest that has rocked the government.
Egyptian state television quoted an official on Saturday as saying that the "situation is very dangerous and explosions were continuing from one spot to another" along the pipeline, adding that "it is a big terrorist operation."
Sinai gas explosion AP 05.02.11 Flames billow into the sky after an explosion at a gas terminal in Egypt's northern Sinai Peninsula, February 5, 2011.
If you like to read the whole story click: Ha'artz 

Israel, Jordan gas cut after Egypt pipeline attack

CAIRO (AFP) – Saboteurs attacked an Egyptian gas pipeline to Jordan on Saturday, forcing authorities to switch off supplies from a twin pipeline to Israel, an official said, as anti-regime protests raged in Cairo.
Attackers used explosives against the pipeline in the town of Lihfen in northern Sinai, near the Gaza Strip, the official told AFP. It was initially thought the pipeline to Israel was targeted.
"The pipeline to Jordan has been attacked and the supply to Israel has been cut off," the official said.
The army has taken precautionary measures to stop the fire from spreading, the official added, as rescue services were putting out the flames.
It was not immediately clear who was responsible, or whether the attack was linked to the deadly protests against President Hosni Mubarak's rule, which entered their 12th day on Saturday.

If you like to read the whole story click: Yahoo! News Network

 

Friday, February 4, 2011

Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

26 January-1 February 2011

GALERAS Colombia 1.22°N, 77.37°W; summit elev. 4276 m
INGEOMINAS reported that on 25 January an emerging seismic pattern from Galeras, characterized by "tornillo-type" earthquakes, was similar to patterns detected prior to past eruptions. Staff noted a strong sulfur gas odor and observed emissions from various areas of the crater that drifted N. Based on changes in seismicity and observed gas emissions, INGEOMINAS raised the Alert Level to II (Orange; "probable eruption in term of days or weeks"). Scientists again observed emissions from various areas of the crater during an overflight on 27 January, but with a slight increase in the number of vents. Gas plumes drifted NW. "Tornillo-type" earthquakes ceased on the morning of 30 January.
Geologic Summary. Galeras, a stratovolcano with a large breached caldera located immediately W of the city of Pasto, is one of Colombia's most frequently active volcanoes. The dominantly andesitic Galeras volcanic complex has been active for more than 1 million years, and two major caldera collapse eruptions took place during the late Pleistocene. Longterm extensive hydrothermal alteration has affected the volcano. This has contributed to large-scale edifice collapse that has occurred on at least three occasions, producing debris avalanches that swept to the W and left a large horseshoe-shaped caldera inside which the modern cone has been constructed. Major explosive eruptions since the mid Holocene have produced widespread tephra deposits and pyroclastic flows that swept all but the southern flanks. A central cone slightly lower than the caldera rim has been the site of numerous small-to-moderate historical eruptions since the time of the Spanish conquistadors.
KIRISHIMA Kyushu 31.931°N, 130.864°E; summit elev. 1700 m
According to the Earthquake Research Institute, an explosion on 26 January from Shinmoe-dake (Shinmoe peak), a stratovolcano of the Kirishima volcano group, prompted JMA to raise the Alert Level to 3 (on a scale of 1-5). Lightning in the ash plume was visible in video footage that same day. Based on reports from JMA, analyses of satellite imagery, and pilot observations, the Tokyo VAAC reported that during 26-27 January ash plumes rose to altitudes of 1.8-2.1 km (6,000-7,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE. According to news articles, tephra fell as far away as 8 km on 27 January and disrupted airline and train services. Some people in Miyazaki (55 km E) voluntarily evacuated and approximately 30 people in Takaharu (15 km E) spent the night in an evacuation center. Video footage showed people clearing ash from the streets.
During an overflight on 29 January, scientists observed a new lava dome in the crater, about 50 m in diameter and incandescent in some areas. They also observed that the crater lake was gone and pyroclastic-flow deposits, 500-600 m long, were present in the SW crater. Notices issued from the Tokyo VAAC during 28-30 January stated that ash emissions were continuing. On 31 January, an ash plume rose to an altitude of 2.1 km (7,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE. A news article noted that an explosion on 1 February was heard more than 7 km away, and broke glass in buildings and cars as far as 8 km away.
Geologic Summary. Kirishima is a large group of more than 20 Quaternary volcanoes located north of Kagoshima Bay. The late-Pleistocene to Holocene volcano group consists of stratovolcanoes, pyroclastic cones, maars, and underlying shield volcanoes located over an area of 20 x 30 km. The larger stratovolcanoes are scattered throughout the field, with the centrally located, 1,700-m-high Karakuni-dake being the highest. Onami-ike and Mi-ike, the two largest maars, are located SW of Karakuni-dake and at its far eastern end, respectively. Holocene eruptions have been concentrated along an E-W line of vents from Mi-ike to Ohachi, and at Shinmoe-dake to the NE. Frequent small-to-moderate explosive eruptions have been recorded since the 8th century.
MAYON Luzon 13.257°N, 123.685°E; summit elev. 2462 m
During 25-27 January, PHIVOLCS reported that one volcanic earthquake at Mayon was detected each day by the seismic network. Although cloud cover mostly prevented observation during 25-31 January, emissions of white steam were occasionally observed during cloud breaks. Incandescence from the crater was seen at night during 30-31 January. The Alert Level remained at 1 and the public was reminded not to enter the 6-km-radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ).
Geologic Summary. Beautifully symmetrical Mayon volcano, which rises to 2,462 m above the Albay Gulf, is the Philippines' most active volcano. The structurally simple volcano has steep upper slopes that average 35-40° and is capped by a small summit crater. The historical eruptions of this basaltic-andesitic volcano date back to 1616 and range from Strombolian to basaltic Plinian. Eruptions occur predominately from the central conduit and have also produced lava flows that travel far down the flanks. Pyroclastic flows and mudflows have commonly swept down many of the approximately 40 ravines that radiate from the summit and have often devastated populated lowland areas. Mayon's most violent eruption, in 1814, killed more than 1,200 people and devastated several towns. Eruptions that began in February 2000 led PHIVOLCS to recommend on 23 February 2000 the evacuation of people within a radius of 7 km from the summit in the SE and within a 6 km radius for the rest of the volcano.
POPOCATEPETL México 19.023°N, 98.622°W; summit elev. 5426 m
CENAPRED noted that steam-and-gas emissions rose from Popocatépetl during 26 January-1 February. An explosion at 2056 on 31 January ejected incandescent fragments as far as 500 m down the E flank and produced an ash plume that rose 2 km and drifted E. The Washington VAAC noted that the ash plume was observed in satellite imagery on 1 February drifting more than 275 km NE.
Geologic Summary. Popocatépetl, whose name is the Aztec word for smoking mountain, towers to 5,426 m 70 km SE of Mexico City and is North America's second-highest volcano. Frequent historical eruptions have been recorded since the beginning of the Spanish colonial era. A small eruption on 21 December 1994 ended five decades of quiescence. Since 1996 small lava domes have incrementally been constructed within the summit crater and destroyed by explosive eruptions. Intermittent small-to-moderate gas-and-ash eruptions have continued, occasionally producing ashfall in neighboring towns and villages.
TENGGER CALDERA Eastern Java (Indonesia) 7.942°S, 112.95°E; summit elev. 2329 m
According to news articles, ash plumes from Tengger Caldera's Bromo cone caused flights between Perth and Bali to be disrupted during 27-28 January. Based on analysis of satellite imagery, the Darwin VAAC reported that on 28 January an ash plume rose to an altitude of 5.5 km (18,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 370 km E and SE. On 29 January an ash plume rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 93 km E. The ash cloud from the previous day was again detected and slowly drifted N. Based on analysis of imagery from multiple satellites and information from CVGHM, the VAAC reported that during 29-31 January ash plumes rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 55 km NW.
Geologic Summary. The 16-km-wide Tengger caldera in eastern Java is located at the northern end of a volcanic massif extending from Semeru volcano. The massive Tengger volcanic complex consists of five overlapping stratovolcanoes, each truncated by a caldera. The most recent is the 9 x 10 km wide Sandsea caldera, which formed incrementally during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. An overlapping cluster of post-caldera cones was constructed on the floor of the Sandsea caldera within the past several thousand years. The youngest of these is Bromo, one of Java's most frequently visited and most active volcanoes. More than 50 mild-to-moderate explosive eruptions have occurred since 1804.
Ongoing Activity
BULUSAN Luzon 12.770°N, 124.05°E; summit elev. 1565 m
During 25-27 and 29-30 January, PHIVOLCS reported that up to five daily volcanic earthquakes at Bulusan were detected by the seismic network. Cloud cover prevented observations of the summit area. A deformation survey conducted during 25-29 January showed slight deflation relative to a December 2010 survey. The Alert Level remained at 1 (on a scale of 0-5).
Geologic Summary. Luzon's southernmost volcano, Bulusan, was constructed within the 11-km-diameter dacitic Irosin caldera, which was formed more than 36,000 years ago. A broad, flat moat is located below the prominent SW caldera rim; the NE rim is buried by the andesitic Bulusan complex. Bulusan is flanked by several other large intracaldera lava domes and cones, including the prominent Mount Jormajan lava dome on the SW flank and Sharp Peak to the NE. The summit of Bulusan volcano is unvegetated and contains a 300-m-wide, 50-m-deep crater. Three small craters are located on the SE flank. Many moderate explosive eruptions have been recorded at Bulusan since the mid-19th century.
KARYMSKY Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) 54.05°N, 159.45°E; summit elev. 1536 m
KVERT reported that moderate seismic activity was detected at Karymsky during 21-28 January. Seismic data showed that possible ash plumes rose to an altitude of 3.8 km (12,500 ft) a.s.l. A thermal anomaly was observed daily in satellite imagery, and ash plumes were observed drifting 65 km S and 100 km NE on 26 and 27 January, respectively. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.
Based on information from the Yelizovo Airport (UHPP), the Tokyo VAAC reported that an ash plume rose to an altitude of 4.6 km (15,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted NE on 1 February.
Geologic Summary. Karymsky, the most active volcano of Kamchatka's eastern volcanic zone, is a symmetrical stratovolcano constructed within a 5-km-wide caldera that formed about 7,600-7,700 radiocarbon years ago. Construction of the Karymsky stratovolcano began about 2,000 years later. The latest eruptive period began about 500 years ago, following a 2,300-year quiescence. Much of the cone is mantled by lava flows less than 200 years old. Historical eruptions have been Vulcanian or Vulcanian-Strombolian with moderate explosive activity and occasional lava flows from the summit crater. Most seismicity preceding Karymsky eruptions has originated beneath Akademia Nauk caldera, which is located immediately S of Karymsky volcano and erupted simultaneously with Karymsky in 1996.
KILAUEA Hawaii (USA) 19.421°N, 155.287°W; summit elev. 1222 m
During 26 January-1 February, activity continued from the summit caldera and east rift zone. At the summit caldera, the level of the lava-pool surface in the deep pit within Halema'uma'u crater circulated and remained mostly stable at approximately 125 m below the crater floor, periodically rising or falling. Nighttime incandescence was visible from the Jaggar Museum on the NW caldera rim. A plume from the vent that drifted mostly SW deposited ash and fresh spatter nearby.
At the east rift zone, lava that broke out of the Quarry tube in a saddle between two rootless shields around 610 m elevation, continued to advance both E and W, producing scattered break-out flows. At the lowest elevation of the E branch, lava advanced along Highway 130 near Kalapana, periodically burning vegetation, and to the S towards the coast. Multiple small ocean entries were active on the W part of the Puhi-o-Kalaikini lava delta. Incandescence emanated from a spatter cone on the N portion of the Pu'u 'O'o crater floor and from the fuming vent in the E wall of the crater.
Geologic Summary. Kilauea, one of five coalescing volcanoes that comprise the island of Hawaii, is one of the world's most active volcanoes. Eruptions at Kilauea originate primarily from the summit caldera or along one of the lengthy E and SW rift zones that extend from the caldera to the sea. About 90% of the surface of Kilauea is formed of lava flows less than about 1,100 years old; 70% of the volcano's surface is younger than 600 years. A long-term eruption from the East rift zone that began in 1983 has produced lava flows covering more than 100 sq km, destroying nearly 200 houses and adding new coastline to the island.
KIZIMEN Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) 55.130°N, 160.32°E; summit elev. 2376 m
KVERT reported that during 21-28 January seismicity from Kizimen was high but variable, and many shallow volcanic earthquakes as well as volcanic tremor continued to be detected. Seismic data analyses suggested that ash plumes possibly rose to an altitude greater than 10 km (32,800 ft) a.s.l. on 23 and 25 January, and not more than 6 km (19,700 ft) a.s.l. on the other days. Satellite images showed a bright thermal anomaly over the volcano daily, and ash plumes that drifted more than 325 km W, S, and E. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.
Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Tokyo VAAC reported that a possible eruption on 29 January produced a plume that rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SW. Subsequent images that day and during 30 January-1 February showed continuing ash emissions.
Geologic Summary. Kizimen is an isolated, conical stratovolcano that is morphologically similar to Mount St. Helens prior to its 1980 eruption. The summit of Kizimen consists of overlapping lava domes, and blocky lava flows descend the flanks of the volcano, which is the westernmost of a volcanic chain north of Kronotsky volcano. The 2,376-m-high Kizimen was formed during four eruptive cycles beginning about 12,000 years ago and lasting 2,000-3,500 years. The largest eruptions took place about 10,000 and 8300-8400 years ago, and three periods of longterm lava-dome growth have occurred. The latest eruptive cycle began about 3,000 years ago with a large explosion and was followed by lava-dome growth lasting intermittently about 1,000 years. An explosive eruption about 1,100 years ago produced a lateral blast and created a 1.0 x 0.7 km wide crater breached to the NE, inside which a small lava dome (the fourth at Kizimen) has grown. A single explosive eruption, during 1927-28, has been recorded in historical time.
SAKURA-JIMA Kyushu 31.585°N, 130.657°E; summit elev. 1117 m
Based on information from JMA, the Tokyo VAAC reported that during 26 January-1 February explosions from Sakura-jima produced plumes that rose to altitudes of 1.2-2.4 km (4,000-8,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE and E. On 31 January, a pilot reported that an ash plume rose to an altitude of 2.7 km (9,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted SE.
Geologic Summary. Sakura-jima, one of Japan's most active volcanoes, is a post-caldera cone of the Aira caldera at the northern half of Kagoshima Bay. Eruption of the voluminous Ito pyroclastic flow was associated with the formation of the 17 x 23-km-wide Aira caldera about 22,000 years ago. The construction of Sakura-jima began about 13,000 years ago and built an island that was finally joined to the Osumi Peninsula during the major explosive and effusive eruption of 1914. Activity at the Kita-dake summit cone ended about 4,850 years ago, after which eruptions took place at Minami-dake. Frequent historical eruptions, recorded since the 8th century, have deposited ash on Kagoshima, one of Kyushu's largest cities, located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km from the summit. The largest historical eruption took place during 1471-76.
SANGAY Ecuador 2.002°S, 78.341°W; summit elev. 5230 m
Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 27 January small ash clouds from Sangay drifted N and quickly dissipated.
Geologic Summary. The isolated Sangay volcano, located E of the Andean crest, is the southernmost of Ecuador's volcanoes, and its most active. It has been in frequent eruption for the past several centuries. The steep-sided, 5,230-m-high glacier-covered volcano grew within horseshoe-shaped calderas of two previous edifices, which were destroyed by collapse to the E, producing large debris avalanches that reached the Amazonian lowlands. The modern edifice dates back to at least 14,000 years ago. Sangay towers above the tropical jungle on the E side; on the other sides flat plains of ash from the volcano have been sculpted by heavy rains into steep-walled canyons up to 600 m deep. The earliest report of an historical eruption was in 1628. More or less continuous eruptions were reported from 1728 until 1916, and again from 1934 to the present. The more or less constant eruptive activity has caused frequent changes to the morphology of the summit crater complex.
SHIVELUCH Central Kamchatka (Russia) 56.653°N, 161.360°E; summit elev. 3283 m
KVERT reported that during 21-28 January moderate seismic activity from Shiveluch was recorded, and an intense thermal anomaly over the volcano was detected in satellite imagery. Gas-and-steam emissions were visually observed during 23-26 January and an ash plume was observed rising to an altitude of 4 km (13,100 ft) a.s.l. on 26 January. Satellite imagery showed an ash plume drifting 54 km S on 26 January. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.
The Tokyo VAAC reported that on 31 January and 1 February possible eruptions detected in satellite imagery produced plumes that rose to altitudes of 3.4-3.7 km (11,000-12,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted NE. Subsequent notices on both days stated that ash had dissipated.
Geologic Summary. The high, isolated massif of Shiveluch volcano (also spelled Sheveluch) rises above the lowlands NNE of the Kliuchevskaya volcano group and forms one of Kamchatka's largest and most active volcanoes. The currently active Molodoy Shiveluch lava-dome complex was constructed during the Holocene within a large breached caldera formed by collapse of the massive late-Pleistocene Strary Shiveluch volcano. At least 60 large eruptions of Shiveluch have occurred during the Holocene, making it the most vigorous andesitic volcano of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc. Frequent collapses of lava-dome complexes, most recently in 1964, have produced large debris avalanches whose deposits cover much of the floor of the breached caldera. Intermittent explosive eruptions began in the 1990s from a new lava dome that began growing in 1980. The largest historical eruptions from Shiveluch occurred in 1854 and 1964.
TAAL Luzon 14.002°N, 120.993°E; summit elev. 311 m
During 25-27 and 29-30 January, PHIVOLCS reported that up to six volcanic earthquakes at Taal were detected daily by the seismic network. Field observations during 23-25 January revealed an increase in the number of steaming vents inside Main Crater and a drop in the lake level. The lake water temperature and pH values were normal. Visual observations on 27 January showed that steaming at a thermal area in the crater was weak. The Alert Level remained at 1 (on a scale of 0-5).
Geologic Summary. Taal volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines and has produced some of its most powerful historical eruptions. In contrast to Mayon volcano, Taal is not topographically prominent, but its prehistorical eruptions have greatly changed the topography of SW Luzon. The 15 x 20 km Taal caldera is largely filled by Lake Taal, whose 267 sq km surface lies 700 m below the S caldera rim and only 3 m above sea level. The maximum depth of the lake is 160 m, and several eruptive centers lie submerged beneath the lake. The 5-km-wide Volcano Island in north-central Lake Taal is the location of all historical eruptions. The island is a complex volcano composed of coalescing small stratovolcanoes, tuff rings, and scoria cones that has grown about 25% in area during historical time. Powerful pyroclastic flows and surges from historical eruptions of Taal have caused many fatalities.

 

Report: Hamas Stirring Up Violence in Egypt

by Maayana Miskin
Hamas is attempting to increase the level of violence in Egyptian demonstrations, according to a report in the Egyptian daily Al-Yawm Al-Sabah that was translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). According to the report, Hamas terrorists were recently caught on their way to demonstrations.
Nine of the terrorists were nabbed in Suez City, and another two were caught in El-Arish.

Security forces believe the 11 were not alone, the paper said. More terrorists are believed to have infiltrated Sinai recently. There has also been movement in the other direction, as Hamas prisoners escape jail in Egypt while police are busy with the protests.

Read the whole story on: Arutz7

2011 Significant Earthquakes

Earthquakes in January 2011

BFP-UPDATE Israel Current News with Prayer Focus February 4, 2011

Visit our Web site: www.bridgesforpeace.com
February 4, 2011   
  

1.  Israel Militarily Prepared for a Hostile Regime in Egypt 

2.  Grad Rockets Hit near Netivot, Ofakim
3.  Jordanian King Replaces Prime Minister amid Protests 
4.  Bipartisan Congressional Move against Palestinian UN Resolution 
5.  Yemen's President Will End 30-Year Reign amid Mass Demonstrations 
6.  Thousands Support "Day of Rage" against Hamas 
7.  Anti-Semitism in Britain Still at Alarming Levels 
8.  Israeli Nightmare: Muslims to Halt Gas Supply 
9.  Israel, Germany to Save Lake Victoria
1.  Israel Militarily Prepared for a Hostile Regime in Egypt
The story goes that an Israeli army chief of general staff once came to his headquarters and announced that he had some good news and some bad news. The bad news was that Egypt now has top-of-the-line, sophisticated U.S. weaponry. The good news was … that Egypt has top-of-the-line, sophisticated U.S. weaponry.

American military support - and the spare parts to keep the equipment running - comes with conditions attached, including that they aren't used against Washington's Israeli ally. Nevertheless, Israel never abandoned its doctrine to maintain forces capable of fighting a two-front war, even if it hadn't faced Egypt on the battlefield for over 37 years and has formally been at peace with it since 1979.

Currently, the Egyptian threat is regarded as low. The mixed male-female Caracal battalion, a crack combat unit [of the Israel Defense Forces or IDF], has proven to be efficient in border patrol [between Israel and Egypt], but even its commander has acknowledged his soldiers wouldn't be there in any conventional war setting.

At army headquarters in Tel Aviv, lights burned bright over the weekend as Defense Minister Ehud Barak convened top commanders and intelligence officers to assess the possible scenarios of the Egyptian upheaval. Sunday [January 30] morning, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told his Cabinet he was "anxiously monitoring" events in Egypt. "Our efforts are designed to continue and maintain stability and security in our region. I remind you that the peace between Israel and Egypt has endured for over three decades and our goal is to ensure that these relations continue."

Still, 30 years of "cold peace" have never eliminated the deep-rooted insecurities and mutual distrust between the Israeli and Egyptian armed forces. While the peace treaty has given the IDF relief in building its battle order, the military has never taken its eye off its southern neighbor, and war plans still call for a hefty reserve force to be set aside for dealing with Egypt, no matter where a confrontation may break out.

Since coming under the U.S. orbit in the wake of the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, brokered by Washington, Egypt has received US $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid. Egypt's army launched an ambitious modernization plan, cutting its personnel from about 600,000 to 340,000 to build a mobile and efficient force.

Egypt's most impressive achievement has been its air force, which the "Military Balance," published by the Institute for National Security Studies, describes as "the most far-reaching transformation of any air arm in the Middle East." Egypt has about 200 advanced American F-16s and some two-dozen French Mirage 2000 interceptors. It also has 100 attack helicopters, compared with just 80 in Israel, according to the Center for Strategic International Studies.

Furthermore, Egypt has some 500 multiple rocket launchers (twice the number as Israel) and nearly half of its 3,100 tanks are Western, including nearly 1,000 M1s. The Egyptian Navy is the most robust in the eastern Mediterranean basin, with 10 frigates, 4 submarines, and 23 missile boats. Egypt has had surface-to-surface missile since the early 1970s, and its Scud rockets reportedly are capable of reaching anywhere in Israel.

Egypt had in the past generation been relegated to a very marginal actor in the IDF threat assessment. But slowly, Egypt has been moving front-and-center, and its increasingly sophisticated and Western military today represents, on paper, the biggest conventional military danger to the IDF.

Israeli military officers have spoken privately about the concern over the aggressive character of the Egyptian buildup. Until now, the IDF, too, has been caught in a double bind. It sees the Egyptian army preparing to fight, yet is hesitant to call Egypt an enemy out of fear of turning it into one.

Nevertheless, watching Egypt spend US $1.3 billion on weapons every year, even if IDF intelligence believed Cairo had no clear interest in war with Israel, didn't pass quietly - particularly after annual military exercises included simulated crossings of the Suez Canal and fighting against an enemy which fit the profile of Israel.

Ironically, Egypt's modernization program has presented a scenario never faced by Israel before with its half indigenous/half U.S.-made weaponry possibly squaring off against similar Western weapons held by Egypt. Alex Fischman, long-time military analyst for Yediot Ahronot, the nation's largest daily, warned that now was the time for Israel to make "political and security modifications." These included creating additional forces for Israel's Southern Command.

In 1980, Israel received F-16 jets two years earlier than expected after the jets built for the Shah of Iran were diverted after Islamic fundamentalist overthrew him and abruptly ended the close alliance between Israel and Iran. For intelligence officers, it was a lesson never to be forgotten - that the distance between a close ally and a fundamental Islamic regime is just so short.

(Excerpts of an article by Arieh O'Sullivan, The Media Line, January 30, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that the recent upheaval in Egypt will make way for a government favorable to Israel, helping to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Scripture
"Be exalted, O God, above the heavens, and Your glory above all the earth; that Your beloved may be delivered, save with Your right hand, and hear me" (Psalm 108:5-6).


2.  Grad Rockets Hit near Netivot, Ofakim
Tensions in Egypt appear to be spreading to Gaza: Grad rockets fired from the Hamas-ruled territory Monday [January 31] night landed near the southern Israeli cities of Ofakim and Netivot. Also Monday, a Kassam rocket exploded in an open area in the Eshkol Regional Council. No injuries or damage were reported.

During the rocket attack on Netivot - the first attack on Israel since the mass protests against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak began a week ago - four people suffered from shock, and damage was caused to a road and a parked car. The rocket landed near a residential neighborhood. Another Grad hit the Ofakim area a few minutes later, but there were no reports of injury or damage.

"It was terrifying," an Ofakim resident said. "We heard a boom-like a nuclear bomb. We thought it was thunder; there was smoke and explosions. We're dying of fear that another wave of Grads and Kassams will begin. We have no shelters or secure rooms, and the rocket fell about 10 meters [33 feet] from the houses."

One of the people who attended a wedding in a small hall near the rocket's landing site in the Netivot area said, "There was music, then we suddenly hear a loud blast. Everyone - little children and men - ran for cover. People fell over one another. It's a miracle no one was hurt."

Another person who attended the wedding said, "Luckily, the rocket landed after the chuppah [when the couple stands under the wedding canopy], while everyone was already eating at the tables. If it had landed a few meters closer, this could have been a mass casualty event."

Meanwhile, Ofakim residents are complaining of a shortage of shelters and fortified spaces. Yaffa, who lives near the scene of the explosion, said: "I was making a cup of coffee and suddenly heard a blast. It caused me to move sideways towards the oven, and my window was cracked. I'm traumatized and afraid of sleeping. We are at God's mercies. I don't even have a protective space here. They need to reenter Gaza and launch another operation."

Last week, two Kassams were fired from Gaza. One rocket landed in an open area in the western Negev, while the other apparently landed in an open area in Gaza. There were no reports of injury or damage. Earlier this month, Egypt warned Hamas that the Israel Defense Forces may launch an offensive if the rocket attacks on Israel are not halted, as was the case in Operation Cast Lead.

(Excerpts of an article by Ynet reporters, Ilana Curiel and Shmulik Hadad contributed, Ynetnews, January 31, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will bring these attacks to an end without Israel being forced to launch an offensive to protect its citizens. Pray for the safety and peace of mind of the people of this area.

Scripture
"The eyes of the LORD are on the righteous, and His ears are open to their cry. The face of the LORD is against those who do evil, to cut off the remembrance of them from the earth. The righteous cry out, and the LORD hears, and delivers them out of all their troubles" (Psalm 34:15-17).


3.  Jordanian King Replaces Prime Minister amid Protests
With massive protests demanding governmental change in Egypt, Jordan's King Abdullah II heeded protests in his own nation on Tuesday [February 1] by replacing his prime minister. The New York Times said King Abdullah named Marouf al-Bakhit - who previously served as prime minister from 2005-07 and is a former general and Jordanian ambassador to Israel - as the new prime minister.

Jordan and Egypt are the only two nations in the Arab world that have full diplomatic ties with Israel. The protests in Jordan have generally not demanded King Abdullah's resignation, unlike in Egypt, where dismissing President Hosni Mubarak has been the protestors' primary goal.

Dr. Assaf David, an expert on Jordan from the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Bridges for Peace on Tuesday (Febraury 1) that the appointment of Bakhit was expected, but the timing was not. "The king doesn't like to be seen as acting under pressure, and what he's done right now is basically acting under pressure," said David. "So that means that he assessed that things necessitate this change right now."

Perhaps the biggest question now is whether the protestors ultimately will be satisfied with the government shuffle. In Jordan, where there are millions of Palestinians, there are two primary opposition groups protesting: the traditional Islamists opposition and the Transjordanian group, which includes public sector employees and retired military officials. David believes that Bakhit will satisfy the Transjordanian opposition, which he said is "very important."

However, appeasing the Islamists with his appointment is not a given, despite the fact that David said Bakhit's reform vision is "quite similar" to that of the Islamists, even if it may be different "in terms of pace." David said that Bakhit is more open to dialogue with Hamas. "I do expect [their] getting closer to Hamas. That might be a very likely outcome of this appointment," said David. "Bakhit prefers to have closer contacts with Hamas, as he sees this Islamist force as the new face of Palestinian society, the new face of Palestinian politics. So basically he calls for and has been calling for mending fences with Hamas for the last two, three years."

While he can't predict what will happen, David said that shift to Hamas could come in a shrewd, secret manner rather than a dramatic move that is a big blow to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority - especially as the US may not appreciate such a step from their ally. However, despite his interest in talking to Israel's enemy, Bakhit's appointment shouldn't signal a shift in Jordan's relationship with Israel. "I don't expect any change on this issue," said David.

(Excerpts of an article by Joshua Spurlock, BFP Israel Mosaic Radio, February 1, 2011)

Prayer Focus
The relationship between Israel and Jordan is critical for peace and stability. Pray that the Lord will protect that relationship and prohibit anti-Israeli Islamist groups from gaining power.

Scripture
"Our soul waits for the LORD; He is our help and our shield, for our heart shall rejoice in Him, because we have trusted in His holy name. Let Your mercy, O LORD, be upon us, just as we hope in You" (Psalm 33:20-22).


4.  Bipartisan Congressional Move against Palestinian UN Resolution
Bipartisan opposition to the forthcoming Palestinian resolution condemning Israeli building on land acquired in the 1967 war [such as East Jerusalem and the West Bank, also known as Judea and Samaria] is taking shape in the U.S. Congress. President Obama has been placed on notice by both Democrat and Republican leadership that lawmakers expect the administration to exercise its veto in the U.N. Security Council when the measure is voted upon.

In a letter to President Obama, House Republican Leader Eric Cantor, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and others called the Palestinian effort "without merit" and urged its public condemnation. The Congressional leaders argued that the resolution was an effort by Palestinian leaders to "circumvent the negotiating process." They urged the president to remind the Palestinian Authority "that any path towards statehood must be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians, not imposed."

The resolution presents a particularly difficult conundrum for President Obama because its opponents are demanding the veto of a measure in-line with administration policy [of opposing the Israeli construction]. Palestinian leaders have warned the president that he cannot veto the resolution and expect to retain credibility as an honest broker in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

(By The Media Line, January 30, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that this strong stand by the American Congress will result in a US veto of this Palestinian resolution.

Scripture
"For I will not trust in my bow, nor shall my sword save me. But You have saved us from our enemies, and have put to shame those who hated us. In God we boast all day long, and praise Your name forever" (Psalm 44:6-8).


5.  Yemen's President Will End 30-Year Reign amid Mass Demonstrations
Another 30-year ruler in the Arab world will end his reign amid mass protests in the streets. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said on Tuesday [February 1] that he will not seek re-election when his term expires in 2013.  Thousands of demonstrators have filled the streets of the capital, Sana'a, for a week, following the trend that began in Tunisia.

Yemen is the most impoverished nation in the Arab world, with most of its population living on less than US $2 per day. Illiteracy and hunger abound with a massive gap between the rich and the poor.

Because of its geographical location and the infiltration of Al-Qaeda into what it sees as a strategic base, the American government has supported Saleh despite the transparent corruption associated with his regime. When the unrest began, Saleh immediately raised the salaries of the military, apparently seeking to shore up its support as demonstrations intensify.

(By The Media Line, February 2, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will establish a government in Yemen that is not only pro-Israel and willing to cooperate with the West against terrorism but also genuinely cares for the needs of the people.

Scripture
"LORD, You have heard the desire of the humble; You will prepare their heart; You will cause Your ear to hear, to do justice to the fatherless and the oppressed, that the man of the earth may oppress no more" (Psalm 10:17-18).


6.  Thousands Support "Day of Rage" against Hamas
Inspired by the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, a Facebook group called "The Revolution of Honor-Gaza" has called for a "day of rage" next Friday to protest against the Hamas government which rules the coastal enclave. The group has grown to some 10,000 members just three days after it was launched.

The group's Facebook page features hate slogans directed against Hamas and its leader Ismail Haniyeh, a photo of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas beside another photo of Che Guevara [a Marxist revolutionary executed in 1967 who has become a countercultural symbol], as well as detailed instructions on how to promote the 'day of rage' using YouTube, Twitter, emails and banners.

Tawfiq Tirawi, a former intelligence chief in the Palestinian Authority [PA] and a current member of Fatah's Central Committee, supported the group's cause. "We are a nation which fights with all means at its disposal to gain freedom and independence from the Israeli occupation, so how can we accept Hamas' despotic regime?" he said.

Senior Hamas figure Salah Bardawil said, "Tirawi's statements do not concern us; Gaza is the address for every revolution in the Arab world," adding that he was not aware of any plans for a "day of rage" in Gaza.

The Facebook page mysteriously vanished Thursday evening [February 3], but its initiators quickly set up a new one and said they would not back down from their plan to encourage Gaza's residents to take to the streets. Hamas allowed about a thousand Palestinians to hold a demonstration against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. "Mubarak, you must leave," the protestors chanted. However, police dispersed those protestors who called for Mubarak's resignation and arrested four of them.

(By Elior Levy, Roi Kais contributed, Ynetnews, February 4, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that this call for protest in Gaza will not result in tragedy and death or in any increase in anti-Israel activity by terror groups headquartered there.

Scripture
"Deliver me, O LORD, from evil men; preserve me from violent men, who plan evil things in their hearts; they continually gather together for war" (Psalm 140:1-2).


7.  Anti-Semitism in Britain Still at Alarming Levels
The second highest number of anti-Semitic incidents was recorded in the UK last year, the Community Security Trust (CST) of the British Jewish community said. More than 639 complaints about violence and abuse against Jews or Jewish institutions were received last year [2010]. They included street attacks, hate mail, threats, and the vandalism and desecration of Jewish property.

The CST said the figures marked the second worst year since it began monitoring in 1984. Despite a significant fall on 2009, when 926 anti-Semitic incidents were recorded-fueled by the war in Gaza-researchers said the trend of rising anti-Jewish acts was continuing. The total of 639 anti-Semitic incidents in 2010 was 17% higher than the 2008 total. Moreover, violent anti-Semitic assaults in 2010 only fell by 8% from the 124 incidents in 2009, and they rose as a proportion of the overall total, from 13% in 2009 to 18% in 2010.

CST head Mark Gardner declared: "Anti-Semitism is not the most important thing in British Jewish life, but there is clearly a significant problem. The CST, police, politicians and the government will keep working in close partnership to tackle anti-Semitism and its wider causes of bigotry and extremism." John Mann, chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group Against Anti-Semitism, said the figures were a "sad and timely reminder." He said, "Our focus is absolute, and we will continue to do all we can to ensure these numbers go down over the coming years."

The CST said the Gaza flotilla raid in May last year and prominent Jewish festivals in September led to two spikes in the number of incidents during the year. Most of the incidents took place in London (219), followed closely by Manchester (216) as well as Hertfordshire (40) and Leeds (21). Among the incidents were 114 assaults, 83 incidents of vandalism, 385 reports of abuse and 32 direct threats.

(Excerpts of an article by World Jewish Congress, February 3, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will protect His people in every corner of the globe. Pray that Christians will rise up and fight this insidious evil on behalf of the Jewish people at every opportunity.

Scripture
"Do not keep silent, O God! Do not hold Your peace, and do not be still, O God! For behold, Your enemies make a tumult; and those who hate You have lifted up their head. They have taken crafty counsel against Your people, and consulted together against Your sheltered ones" (Psalm 83:1-3).


8.  Israeli Nightmare: Muslims to Halt Gas Supply
The violent uprising in Egypt has not stopped the delivery of gas to Israel. So far the Egyptian and Israeli governments have not conveyed any message hinting the supply will stop, despite recent events and the fact that the Egyptian-Israeli gas line passes through northern Sinai where the riots are taking place. Egypt also supplies gas to Jordan and Syria, as well as gas tankers to Europe.

The gas delivery to these countries was uninterrupted as well. The gas plants in the country are well secured and kept far away from the riot zones. Even if these facilities will be damaged, the Israeli electrical company has reserves to last until the plants are repaired.

Egypt supplies around 40% of Israel's gas consumption. The rest originates from a reservoir near Ashdod owned by Israel and the United States. If the Egyptian gas delivery continues as planned, the reservoir is expected to run out only by 2014.

Starting from 2014, Israel's electric company and private entrepreneurs plan to begin purchasing a mix of Egyptian gas as well as gas from Tamar reservoir [in the Mediterranean], owned by American Noble Energy gas company and Israeli businessman Yitzhak Tshuva.

Importing Egyptian gas is part of an economic benefits package signed by Israel and Egypt, which includes the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) Agreement as well as the gas agreement. The package requires that Egypt buy equipment from Israeli companies and in return be duty free from US products.

Egypt now earns nearly US $2 billion annually and is expected to earn another billion from gas delivery to Israel in the upcoming years. This is a lot of money for the struggling Egyptian market, therefore senior energy officials estimate that any secular Egyptian regime will continue to supply Israel with gas, unless the Society of the Muslim Brothers come to power.

The most extreme scenario for the Israeli gas economy will play out if an Islamic regime will gain control in Egypt. This means the gas delivery will cease to exist. If this were to happen, the electric company and private entrepreneurs will be forced to purchase gas from Israeli companies, but mainly from Tshuva. If the Egyptian supply will stop, the reservoir gas in Israel will last only until 2012, which means that the Israel market will have to function without natural gas for nearly a year until the Tamar drilling begins in 2014.

The electric company's power plants and other privately owned facilities are prepared for gas shortages. The issue is that diesel oil is far more expensive than gas and very harmful to the environment. The transformation from gas to diesel oil will also take some time. An absence of natural gas is expected to hurt the economy either way, because if Israeli gas suppliers become a monopoly, they might raise the prices above market value.

The electric company (the EMG company which supplies gas from Egypt to Israel and is partly owned by Israeli businessman Yossi Maiman); the Delek Group, controlled by Tshuva; and the Ofer brothers' company OPC are all planning on building a private power plant. They declined to comment on the issue.

(By Tani Goldstein, Ynetnews, January 30, 2011)

Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will protect Israel from this scenario that would be difficult for the nation but also not in the best interests of the Egyptian people.

Scripture
"Do not be afraid of sudden terror, nor of trouble from the wicked when it comes; for the LORD will be your confidence, and will keep your foot from being caught" (Proverbs 3:25-26).


9.  Israel, Germany to Save Lake Victoria
Israel and Germany on Monday [January 31] signed a joint letter of intent for a first-of-its-kind joint cooperation effort, with the goal of saving Lake Victoria in Kenya. Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and the second largest in the world and is being threatened by a severe ecological disaster. Half of the fish species in the huge lake - 410 kilometers (255 miles) long and 250 kilometers (150 miles) wide - have already become extinct. About 30 million people make their living from the seaweed-filled lake that has low oxygen levels.

In the past few years, an international effort has tried to find out what went wrong in the lake in order to try and save at least some of the many varieties of flora and fauna that can be found in and around Lake Victoria. The Israeli-German joint effort will directly and indirectly benefit a number of African states whose economy depends on Lake Victoria, including Egypt.

Lake Victoria is one of the sources of the Nile, which is also suffering from the lake's ecological disaster. Experts from Israel and Germany will join together through a project agreed upon by the foreign ministries of the two countries. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon and German Minister for Development Dirk Niebel signed the joint letter of intent.

Lake Victoria's ecological system was severely damaged following a major contamination, and the joint venture is set to work together in the fields of water and agriculture. The main goal is to prevent a continued deterioration and contamination in the lake while developing and creating sources of income for the weaker segments of the population.

Ayalon said that the lake restoration efforts would be carried out after consultations with the Kenyan government. Israel and Germany agreed that the joint mission would leave for Kenya next month in order to move forward with the project.

(By Itamar Eichner, Ynetnews, February 1, 2011)

Prayer Focus

Pray that the relationship between Israel and Germany will continue to strengthen through this and other joint project as well as diplomatic channels.

Scripture
"I will instruct you and teach you in the way you should go; I will guide you with My eye" (Psalm 32:8).

Note: All Scripture is taken from the New King James Version, unless otherwise noted.

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